Nepal: Reality check behind the Euphoria
Nepal should prioritize fostering genuine inner-party democracy within existing political parties to develop capable mid-level leadership while maintaining equidistance from Hindutva and external powers to preserve its sovereignty and democratic institutions.
Sushila Karki sworn-in as interim Prime Minister of Nepal wears a crown of thorns. Tasked to hold parliamentary elections within a period of six months, her initial steps are in the right direction. Good cabinet choices, the announcement of reparation, and the announcement of investigation into the killings of protesters.
A former Chief Justice of Nepal for just a year, she has rich legal experience. While being non-partisan for over three decades, she understands Nepal’s politics unlike most judges of superior courts in many common law countries, including India.
She is incorruptible and a strong-willed individual. The second attribute in the nebulous situation that is Nepal currently can have both useful and difficult dimensions. Like all democracies with weak civilian institutional frameworks, the end game of political control is wily negotiation on a range of issues, most importantly, the loaves of office. Not being part of the gravy train, she will have her task cut out, negotiating with biped bandicoots of all hues.
Public good is the attainment of the holy grail in her case and that of her new cabinet colleagues. Not necessarily shared by those who were shown the door and want it at best to be a revolving door!
Having no cadres of her own, but disparate youth groups, who while being effervescent presently, will in time disappear like the bubbles of protest they created. Some will attempt to create political vehicles of their own while many in due course will become part of the existent political machines they now decry. Others, giving themselves inflated importance, will, to put it mildly, not be helpful.
The duopoly of authoritarians, KP Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba, both within their respective political machines, had little in common but remaining in office and power. They are out for the count on this round, but the results of the bout are a long way off. The Maoists under Prachanda also want a seat at the high table, though large sections of their cadre seem to have seen through him and his shenanigans. Writing him off would be a mistake. If nothing else, he has immense manipulative skills.
Karki will be expected to show political and administrative results across the board in too many areas in a time frame that will be daunting even for a consummate magician. Even a modicum of administrative reforms to tackle ingrained bureaucratic sloth and petty corruption, which the average citizen faces daily, will be difficult. Having no trained political cadres and without them looking over the shoulders in every one of the 77 Chief District Officer (CDO) offices in Nepal, reform is easier said than done!
The myth of Youth revolution-Pies in the sky!
Too much has been made of the youth revolution. That they were undeniably the catalyst is a no-brainer. They certainly are part of the reformation of Nepal, not the only ones. Widespread alienation of all sections of society from the organs of governance was tinder waiting for a spark.
A reading of the 18th Brumaire is instructive. There are too many parallels between contemporary social discontent and the advent of authoritarian populism in too many countries to ignore.
France 1968 influenced “cultural and political landscapes beyond France. It opened the way for new areas of social emancipation, including feminism, ecology, and gay rights.” As for real political change, c’est la vie. This is how it is.
Lest we forget, massive mobilisation of the youth notwithstanding, the movement failed to overthrow the government or enact a transformation of society. President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, in which his party won a landslide victory, effectively ending the youth upsurge.
The Arab Spring
This is the best fairy tale that emanated from the region since the genie came out from the lamp. In Tunisia, it is back to being what it does best: being a dictatorship. Apart from its cohabitation with ultra-right-wing Israel, Egypt just made sure its democratically elected leader died in prison. Jordan will be Hashemite till they obey the diktat of the Golani brigade. No Zia ul Haq and his Arbid brigade presently to mow down Palestinians. Bahrain is secure as the causeway allows Saudi tanks to crush popular unrest. Libya, Yemen and Syria had consequences for all to see.
South Asia youth ferment and consequences
Bangladesh
FALGOON’ and CHAITRA are good months both in the Bengali and Nepali Calendar to visit either of the countries. The elections in both countries will hopefully have concluded, relatively peaceful.
Short of divine or other intervention, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami will be the main contenders, with the BNP clearly having the edge. The newly created party that represents a major section of the students that propelled the ouster of Sheikh Hasina will at best be the third, as the Awami League is not in the running. And an unreformed notorious Directorate General of Armed Forces Intelligence (DGBFI) waits in the wings, its talons sheathed for the moment.
Sri Lanka
The JVP has been the best-organized political party in Sri Lanka. It is no surprise that they rode the Aragalaya protests to electoral success. The creation of the National Peoples Power coalition was nothing short of genius. The Colombo elite personified by Ranil Wickremasinghe were shown the door. Anura Dissanayake has been cautious and astute so far in both domestic and regional politics. His only Achilles heel is the issues relating to the 13th amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution. But that is some way off as there is no overarching leadership in the Sri Lankan Tamil community. It is perhaps the only movement in this part of the globe recently that peacefully toppled the old, ossified elite and carpetbaggers of the clan, Rajapakse.
The choices in Nepal
The Hindutva crowd and Monarchists
They feed on each other just as mice in their filial cannibalism. Their support is presently marginal. Like the Tamil Hindu in India, the average Hindu Nepali can be observant to a fault but is not willing to exchange his or her hard-won democratic freedoms to saffron mendicants who promise them moksha or nirvana in only the afterlife.
It is the abject failure of the parties of the left and the secular Nepali Congress that has given space to those who have little respect for Nepal’s sovereignty. While the wannabe monarch, the beneficiary of a familicide that has yet to see proper investigation, certainly has the capacity to create mayhem. Not only was the lumpen able to storm Nakhu jail and free pro-royalists, but much of the burning and looting, not surprisingly, did not touch the palatial properties of the erstwhile royalty and its courtiers.
The good Nepali Hindu should realise that an embrace of Hindutva brings in its wake the tentacles of Akhand Hindutva India. A pipe dream of the saffron brigade which wants all the present SAARC countries with the exception of Afghanistan but the inclusion of Myanmar in their mythical Aryavart.
The CPN (UML), the Nepali Congress, the CPN (Maoist) all have gerontocratic leadership, which have clearly learnt nothing, as evidenced by their joint statement lamenting the dissolution of Parliament. Would they have been better off with a Nepali Cromwell yelling, “In the name of God, go“?
All of them have capable midlevel and grassroots leadership. The sooner all of them show greater inner party democracy, the better the prospects for parliamentary democracy in Nepal.
In the wings-India-China-USA
For the conspiracy theorists, it must be a dampener that India, the USA, and China have all recognized the legitimacy of the interim government under Karki. This is not to deny that all of them have been fishing in the Koshi and Gandaki river systems. If all of them let their nets and rods be for a while, it will help the Nepali people reiterate their own agency.
The Europeans and the Scandinavians have also not been innocent bystanders. Their ill-advised support to causes that do not befit a sovereign Nepal is legion. They would all help Nepal if they strengthen delivery mechanisms like the offices of the Chief District Officer, which have little resources, are understaffed and office equipment is better on display in museums.
Civil Society in Nepal, as elsewhere in Asia, needs to remember “beware of Greeks bearing gifts”.
To cite only instance, all the fiercely anticommunist donors have been funders of both the Marxist and Maoist influenced civil society organizations! And of course, the name of the game is “color revolution” for those who don pinko red to crimson red!
And not forget that the Army is nearby in Bhadrakali Marg.
The issues in Nepal are too many to enumerate here. Suffice to say, that the Nepalis did not do too badly without colonial interlopers and can do so again with a sagacious national leadership at all levels.
